Burak Bir
18 November 2025•Update: 18 November 2025
LONDON
Glaciers that have helped sustain Chile through a 15-year megadrought may be too depleted to buffer similar climate disasters by the end of the century, scientists warned on Tuesday.
By the end of the century, the considerably worn-out glaciers will not be able to buffer a similar megadrought in the South American country, according to a study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
An international team of researchers, including Francesca Pellicciotti from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA), noted that climate scientists only realized in 2015 that the unending drought in Chile was "really a big thing."
She said that the Chilean megadrought – which began in 2010 and has become one of the most severe on record in South America – was never forecast in any climate model.
"And yet, it has happened and is still ongoing," she added.
In the study, Pellicciotti, together with Chilean geoscientists Alvaro Ayala and Eduardo Munoz-Castro from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, and other researchers, modeled a future scenario based on the current megadrought in Chile.
The study examined how the unprecedented dry spell has strained the cryosphere of the Southern Andes, a region containing more than 15,000 glaciers.
Researchers modeled a future scenario based on the current drought and found that continued glacier loss could leave Chile without this natural buffer.
Although meltwater has so far helped stabilize runoff, the glaciers themselves have lost significant volume during the prolonged dry period, according to the findings.
The research also suggested that by the end of the century the diminished ice reserves will no longer be able to make up for years of missing precipitation.
"In light of this evidence, a question emerges ... are we prepared for future climate disasters?” said Pellicciotti as scientists call for coordinated global climate policies to develop effective water management strategies.
