US midterm primaries in 6 states: What to know

Americans in half a dozen states are slated to cast ballots Tuesday in primary elections that will be pivotal in determining the balance of power in Congress.

Primaries formative in determining who will be competing in November’s midterm elections are taking place Tuesday in a total of six states – California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. All states except California will be voting on nominees to compete for seats in the US Senate and House of Representatives.

California will only be holding primaries for House races. That is due to the fact that senators are elected to six-year terms with one-third of the chamber up for election every two years. Neither of the state’s two senators are up for re-election this cycle.

35 Senate seats up for election this year; 5 primaries to be held Tuesday

A total of 35 Senate seats – including two that are up for special elections – will be contested in November, and Tuesday’s contests will determine the Republican and Democratic candidates for five of those races.

Among the wider pool of roughly three dozen races, 11 are considered battlegrounds in this year’s midterms, according to an analysis from the Ballotpedia nonpartisan political encyclopedia. Within the states holding primaries Tuesday, only Iowa is moderately competitive.

Analyses by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all suggest that Iowa’s Senate race will likely be won by whichever Republican candidate emerges victorious Tuesday, unlike the clearer outlook in the other four states. Iowa’s seat will have no incumbent challenger after Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced in August that she would not be seeking another term, capping her decade-long Senate career.

Every other state holding primaries Tuesday is slated to hold Senate races that are rated either solidly or safely Republican or Democrat come November.

Of the total 35 Senate seats up for election this year, Republicans hold 22 compared to 13 for Democrats. The Senate is currently split 53-45 with Republicans in the majority. The chamber’s two Independents caucus with Democrats.

Speculation has continued to mount that control of the Senate may be in play for Democrats with US President Donald Trump’s approval ratings hitting historic lows as inflation exacerbated by his war on Iran pinches Americans’ pocket books.

California to lead pack in House primaries

Seats in the US House are assigned to states based on total population. As the country’s most populous state, California will also hold the highest number of House primaries this year with 52 seats being contested. Most of the other states have primary races in the low-single digits. Only New Jersey breaks into double digits with 12 seats up for election.

While the picture of control remains murky at best in the Senate, the House is being firmly contested by Democrats who are seeking to end Republican control of the chamber. House Speaker Mike Johnson holds a razor-thin five seat 217-212 majority in the chamber, meaning he has little ground to lose come November.

Republicans hold 180 seats that are considered safe this year as Democrats claim the same for 179 seats, according to the 270ToWin US elections website. An additional 29 seats are likely to be won by Republicans, or lean Republican compared to 28 for Democrats.

That leaves 19 seats that are toss-ups.

Trump redistricting push to be felt this year

But looming large over this year’s races is a redistricting war started by Trump as he seeks to pad Republicans’ electoral prospects in the midterms. Trump appealed to Republican state officials to re-draw their congressional maps to more heavily favor his fellow partisans.

The party in power typically loses ground in the federal legislature during midterm elections – a fact repeatedly acknowledged and bemoaned by Trump as he seeks to ensure Republican control of Congress so he can execute his legislative agenda.

Texas was the first state to heed the US president’s appeal, starting a gerrymandering arms race as Democrats sought to counter successive efforts to winnow their prospects in the House. That includes California where state officials put a redrawn House district map to voters that was overwhelmingly approved two-to-one amid concerns over Trump’s redistricting push.

Currently, Republicans hold nine of the state’s House seats, but that number is expected to dwindle after the state’s congressional districts were redrawn.

Primary races will be held in states through early September with Delaware being the last to do so on Sept. 15.