By Aamir Latif
KARACHI, Pakistan
U.S. President Donald Trump’s first tweet of the New Year followed by the suspension of military aid to Pakistan have brought checkered relations between the two allies to their lowest ebb, according to local analysts.
The U.S. administration last week suspended a $255 million military aid to Pakistan days after Trump took to Twitter and accused Pakistan of playing a “double-game” and providing sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban fighting American troops in neighboring Afghanistan.
Reacting sharply to the U.S. move, an irate Pakistan denied the charges and said it needed acknowledgment of its sacrifices in the war on terror.
Going a step further, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif told local Geo TV that Islamabad no longer considers Washington an ally after “unilateral U.S actions”.
“This is the hardest time vis-a-vis relations between the two countries. It must not be taken lightly, especially by Pakistan because it has the potential to subvert regional peace efforts, particularly reconciliation attempts in Afghanistan,” retired Lt. Gen. Talat Masood, an Islamabad-based political and security analyst, told Anadolu Agency.
Relations between the two allies in the war against terrorism have further nosedived since Trump assumed office in January last year, mainly because of a clash of interests in war-torn Afghanistan.
Washington accuses Islamabad of providing safe havens to the powerful Haqqani network, which is blamed for numerous brazen attacks on foreign forces in Afghanistan, including the capital Kabul in recent years.
'More transparency'
Pakistan denies the charge and claims to have cleared 95 percent of its northwestern tribal belt along Afghanistan of militants following a series of military operations since 2014.
“In my view, Pakistan should seriously re-evaluate its policy toward militant groups. This is not only in U.S. interest but also in Pakistan’s favor,” Masood observed.
“But, if Pakistan still insists that it has already dismantled the militant sanctuaries, then it should be more transparent,” he added.
Abdul Khalique Ali, a Karachi-based political analyst, holds a similar opinion.
“Washington must understand that war in Afghanistan is a very complex and complicated issue. It is not a black-and-white situation. Pakistan’s non-cooperation can be a peripheral issue but not the actual problem,” he said.
“There are several issues like the opium trade, infighting between Afghan warlords, corruption, and the tussle between [Afghan] President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, which need to be tackled simultaneously,” he added.
Apart from this, the growing influence of India, Pakistan’s arch-rival in Afghan politics and security, is also a genuine source of concern for Pakistan, which needs to be addressed by the U.S., Ali said.
'Both sides will suffer'
Both sides, especially Pakistan, have more to lose than to achieve in the current scenario, Masood argued.
“Islamabad will turn out to be the major loser if the current situation persists or goes farther because it is more vulnerable and economically dependent on foreign assistance,” he added.
“Washington may suspend all kinds of aid to Islamabad, by using its influence over the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and even the EU,” he said, adding if this happens Afghanistan and India will go even more hostile against Pakistan.
Ali, however, thinks Pakistan also has some cards to play.
“The U.S. is using Pakistan’s air and road routes for supplies to its forces in Afghanistan. If Pakistan stops providing that, Washington will have to use the northern route, which will cost it much more,” he said.
In addition, he observed, Pakistan’s strategic location and its so-called influence on the Afghan Taliban would not let Washington to completely sever its ties with Islamabad.
“Pakistan has already been a close ally of China and Turkey, and is getting closer to Russia as well. In the current situation it may further ties with Iran.
Backdoor diplomacy
“The U.S. will never want the formation of a regional alliance against it,” he said.
Despite escalating diplomatic tensions, the two countries are still engaged in talks on the war against terrorism through backdoor channels, officials and local media reported.
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis last week told U.S. media that the Pentagon was still in contact with the Pakistan army regarding its war against terrorism.
“The top brass of the two armies are still in contact over how to win this war,” a senior Foreign Ministry official told Anadolu Agency on condition of anonymity due to restrictions on speaking to the media.
He said Islamabad had no immediate plans to block its NATO supply route in retaliation for suspension of U.S military aid, but added they were considering raising taxes on the cargo being supplied to foreign forces across the border as “compensation”.
Reached by Anadolu Agency, Muhammad Faisal, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, declined to comment.
In 2013, following a NATO attack which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, Pakistan cut the NATO supply route to Afghanistan. Pakistan is the route for nearly half of NATO supplies shipped to foreign troops in Afghanistan.
