There is ‘increasing worry’ in Chinese banks about possible US sanctions over support to Russia, says international relations expert Chien-Yu Shih
‘China tries not to be perceived as forming a ‘Russia-China’ axis,’ says US-based scholar Haiyun Ma‘US will do anything in its power to poison the China-Russia relationship,’ says Chinese political analyst Einar Tangen
ISTANBUL
China will tread a cautious path during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Beijing and try to find a balance in what it can offer without sabotaging its own interests, according to several experts.
As the Ukraine war drags on, Russia needs “substantive support from China,” Jingdong Yuan, an expert on China affairs, told Anadolu.
“China will likely meet some of the requests, but to the extent that these do not confirm US and EU suspicions and … cause harm to Chinese economic interests,” said Jingdong, director of the China and Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Putin landed in Beijing early on Thursday on a two-day state visit at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. This is his first trip to China since the March inauguration of his record fifth term as president, and second since last October, when he attended the third Belt and Road Initiative summit.
While Xi and Putin continue to project their bilateral ties as a “no limits partnership,” analysts believe there is growing concern in Beijing over sanctions from the West due to continued support to Russia.
The US has already blacklisted some 20 Chinese enterprises for military-related exports to Russia.
Still, Jingdong believes Putin’s visit is “symbolic … to show the world that the two countries (and) two leaders have close ties.”
It is “a show of strong partnership and solidarity, much more needed by Russia but also useful for China, given growing tensions with the US, and divergence with Europe on a number of issues,” he said.
Putin’s trip also comes on the heels of Xi’s Europe tour earlier this month, when he visited France, Serbia and Hungary.
“With domestic economic slowdown,” Jingdong said about China, “he (Xi) is eager to get back to some form of business as usual, of which the US and EU are important factors, rhetoric about resolve against western sanctions to the contrary.”
Benefits and sanctions
Chien-Yu Shih, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, emphasized the mutual benefits of China and Russia’s bilateral ties.
China gets “natural resources with discounts on Russian energy imports, including the steady flow of natural gas through the Power of Siberia pipeline,” he told Anadolu.
For Moscow, China is “an important economic lifeline,” particularly due to the sanctions it is facing due to the Ukraine war, he said.
Trade between the two countries reached $240.1 billion in 2023, according to Chinese media figures, crossing the target of $200 billion “ahead of schedule.”
Despite Western criticism, “China continues to defend its unlimited partnership” with Russia, he said, but there is “increasing worry” in Chinese banks about “possible US sanctions.”
Keeping this in mind, Chien-Yu believes Beijing will refrain from providing Russia with “lethal weapons,” but continue assisting it with “satellite intelligence, fighter jet parts, microchips and other military and civil dual-use equipment.”
Areas of divergence
Experts also believe there are undercurrents of strain within Beijing and China’s relations.
Chien-Yu said Russia is “not happy with China’s expansion of power through economic and trade investment in Central Asia,” referring to Beijing’s expanded footprint in former Soviet Union countries.
“But there is nothing Russia can do now,” he said.
He said China and the Central Asian countries are “now acting as the rear of the (Ukraine) war, assisting Russia in supplying resources.”
“This relationship will continue until the end of the Ukraine war,” he added.
Another major point of divergence, he said, is “possible interest conflict in the international structure,” including Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza.
While Gaza has “suddenly reduced” pressure on Russia, “unrest in the Middle East has caused instability in China’s energy supply, and is also detrimental in the BRI investment,” Chien-Yu explained.
On North Korea, he said if Pyongyang somehow sparks a nuclear crisis, it will have an impact on China’s security and “even force it to get involved, while Russia might stay out of the matter.”
Jingdong, the SIPRI researcher, agreed that in the “loose nexus of convenience” among North Korea, Russia, China and Iran, Beijing has the most to lose.
“China has far more stakes in the current international system than the other three,” he said.
China ‘cannot afford further damage’ to ties with West
Haiyun Ma, a professor at the Frostburg University in the US, believes Beijing is in a position where it cannot “afford to further damage relations with the US, EU and the West, including Japan, simply because of the Russian cause.”
This, he argued, was evident in the Chinese president’s recent visit to Europe.
“Xi’s coincidental trip to Europe and simultaneous absence from Putin’s (presidential) inauguration indicate China’s certain distance from Russia,” Ma told Anadolu.
“In this sense, China tries not to be perceived as forming a ‘Russia-China’ axis.”
Chien-Yu built on this point by referring to the “intensified strategic competition” between Washington and Beijing, adding that it has caused “China to suffer heavy losses in the high-tech war.”
He said Putin remains “well aware that a cease-fire or end to the war in Ukraine depends on the opinion of the US, not Europe.”
“Once the war in Ukraine ends, Russia might become the target of the US to win over,” he said, adding that Washington could pursue an “alliance with Russia to check and balance China.”
View from Beijing: ‘Lack of trust’
Einar Tangen, a prominent political observer based in Beijing, noted that China was “well aware that the US will do anything in its power to poison the China-Russia relationship.”
A primary factor there is “the threat Chinese manufacturing combined with Russian resources would pose to US economic hegemony,” he told Anadolu.
In terms of Ukraine, he said, “there are competing issues, (such as) separatism versus the right of Russia to be secure.”
“Beijing has in the past and is now urging peace at the negotiating table, rather than on the battlefield, and Xi is trying to encourage peace talks,” he said.
The difficulty is “the lack of trust” because of “two bad faith negotiations, Minsk I and II,” he said, referring to the agreements signed in the capital of Belarus in 2014 and 2015.
“Both (Francois) Hollande from France and (Angela) Merkel from Germany admitted they had no intention of following through on the agreements but were simply playing for time to rearm Ukraine,” Einar said.
“Against such a backdrop, it is difficult to push a peace process. But, in the end all parties know peace can only come through negotiations. The pointless deaths are only serving ingrained hatred,” said Einar, adding that China’s foreign policy was “premised on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equal rights, consultations.”
