10 October 2016•Update: 10 October 2016
By Bahattin Gonultas and Sibel Akbay
ISTANBUL
Global energy use per capita will peak in 2030 due to new technology and stricter government policies, but demand for electricity will double by 2060, the World Energy Council predicted on Monday.
The report ‘World Energy Scenarios 2016 - Grand Transition' was launched at the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, of which Anadolu Agency is the global communication partner for 2016.
Speaking at the report launch, Ged Davis, executive chair of scenarios of the World Energy Council, said the world is undergoing a "grand transition" which will create a fundamentally new world for the energy industry.
“Historically people have talked about peak oil but now disruptive trends are leading energy experts to consider the implications of peak demand,” Davis said.
He said the shift in power from West to East is gathering pace with predictions that India will be the most populous country in 2030 and between 2035 and 2045, China will be the world’s largest economy.
Davis also said that demand peaks for coal and oil raises the risk of stranded resources.
“Limiting global warming to no more than a 2 °C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort,” Davis warned.
“The phenomenal rise of solar and wind energy continues and learning-curves [in renewables] will lead to continuous price reductions,” he added.
The council said that fossil fuels will remain the number one source of energy, and could provide anything from 50 percent to 70 percent of energy by 2060.
“Technological innovation, government policies and lower growth expectations will have a significant impact on the sector in the coming decades,” the report said.
Oil will continue to play a significant role in the transportation sector representing over 60 percent of the mix in all three scenarios to 2060 and natural gas will continue to increase at a steady rate, the report said.
"Demand peaks for coal and oil have the potential to take the world from stranded assets, predominantly in the private sector, to state-owned stranded resources and could cause significant stress to the current global economic equilibrium with unforeseen consequences on geopolitical agendas," the report added.
“Solar and wind, which currently account for approximately four percent of power generation, will see the largest increase so that by 2060 they will represent between 20 percent and 39 percent of power generation,” it said.
The council also said that disruption would also be created by electricity in personal transport systems.
"A growing global middle class will drive the light-duty vehicle fleet to grow 2.5 to 2.7 times to 2060. ...The rapid penetration of electric and hybrid plug-in vehicles globally will reflect 26 percent to 32 percent of the light duty vehicle fleet in 2060. Hybrid petroleum vehicles reflect another 24 percent to 31 percent share of the fleet."
