By Murat Temizer
ANKARA
Liquefied natural gas exports from Iran after the nuclear deal would be a dream come true for the country which sits on one of world’s biggest oil and gas reserves, according to a professor in the international studies department at Georgetown University on Wednesday.
Iran and the P5+1 group signed a final agreement last Tuesday, bringing to a close nearly two years of contentious talks that focused on providing Iran with crucially needed sanctions relief in return for unprecedented curbs and inspections on its nuclear program.
The lifting of sanctions brought discussions on the possibility of LNG exports from Iran.
"They don't have the technology to do it. After the sanctions are lifted, it will take some time for them to acquire technology," Professor Jean Seznec said, adding that also it will be very expensive, as each LNG train costs around $5 billion, at a time when prices are down and likely to remain down for a while.
Seznec explained that there is no possibility of Iran competing with global LNG leaders Qatar and Australia, but said that Iran would be better off keeping its gas for local industrialization such as chemicals, water and electricity.
"Iran will first need to redevelop its gas fields, then much of the gas produced will be re-injected to keep the oil pressure up." he said, adding, "It [Iran] will be better off exporting its gas by pipeline through Turkey, getting the new pipeline to Pakistan and maybe to India."
According to the latest BP Statistical Review, Iran holds the world’s largest gas reserves with 34 trillion cubic meters. However in 2014, BP statistics revealed that Iran only produced 173 billion cubic meters of natural gas and consumed 170 billion cubic meters.
Currently, Iran does not have the infrastructure to export or import LNG. However, the country's aspirations to build a liquefaction facility date back to the 1970s, but the country has yet to build one. This is mainly due to the lack of technology and foreign investment, according to the U.S Energy Information Administration, EIA.
"In the end the amount of capital needed to redevelop the oil and gas sector, in my view, would not pre-empt Iran going into the LNG market in the near future. It would be a major misallocation of resources for the Iranians to do LNG," he said.
The world's largest gas field and Iran's most significant energy development project, the South Pars field, accounted for about 40 percent of Tehran's gross natural gas production in 2013 and around 40 percent of its total proved natural gas reserves.
The field has a 24-phase development plan with many phases already completed. Phases 15, 17 and 19 will be the next to develop.
Natural gas produced from the remaining phases is planned for export via pipelines as LNG. However as yet there are no firm plans to build an LNG export facility in Iran.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran faces a number of challenges in the supply, and particularly the demand for its gas.
Iran currently exports its gas, which also includes Turkmen gas, to Turkey only.
"It will take time to be major player"
Zubair Iqbal, an expert from Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that the outlook for Iranian natural gas exports is bright in the medium to long term.
"Given that the domestic capacity to collect and export is still limited, it will take time for Iran to become a major player," Iqbal said.
He claims that Tehran will seek to go after the "low hanging" fruit -- the Pakistan-India market -- through the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline in which India will likely come on board as sanctions are lifted.
"An extension to China will likely remain uncertain, especially in light of Iran linking up with the planned Central Asian route for marketing to China and Europe," he said.
He added that he does not see an early and tangible movement toward rapprochement with Arab producers and suppliers "not least because those countries will be wary of closer relations with Iran. So Iran will go it alone as a competitor resulting in lower real gas prices in the long run," he added.
In March 2013, then Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari, agreed with his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to begin the $1.5-$2 billion Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. The U.S. State Department raised eyebrows towards this move given the sanctions on Iran.
In early April this year, it was rumored that Chinese state-owned energy giant CNPC would finance 85 percent of the project's construction costs with Chinese loans.
