As Germany awaits SPD vote, coalition partners face eroding support

BERLIN

Germany's prospective coalition partners, the center-right Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats (SPD), face declining voter support as the country awaits the SPD membership vote on the coalition deal.

According to the latest Forsa poll released on Tuesday, electoral support for chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) had fallen to 25% — a decline of 3.5 percentage points from their Feb. 23 election result.

The SPD polled at 15%, slightly below their election result of 16.4%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, meanwhile, has surged to a record 26%, representing a five-percentage-point increase since February.

The combined support for the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and center-left SPD has dropped from nearly 45% to 40% in the past two months amid growing voter discontent. According to pollsters, if elections were held this week, the coalition partners would not have enough votes to secure a governing majority in parliament.

Voter frustration with the lengthy government formation process was seen as one of the main factors in declining support for mainstream parties. Although conservative leader Merz and his CDU/CSU alliance campaigned on promises of stricter immigration controls and swift economic reforms, they have been unable to implement any concrete changes during this period.

SPD votes on coalition

The political leaders of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats finalized a coalition agreement in early April, nearly seven weeks after the Feb. 23 parliamentary elections.

The agreement now awaits a critical vote from the SPD's 358,000 members, who began casting their ballots on April 15. The mini-referendum continues through April 29, with results expected the following day. To pass, the agreement must receive majority support with at least 20% member participation.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will hold a small party conference on April 28 to vote on the agreement, where approval is widely expected. Their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has already endorsed the deal.

If all parties approve the agreement, the German parliament could elect Merz as chancellor as early as May 6, replacing current leader Olaf Scholz.