- While emerging powers' rising clout offers hope for a more just and peaceful international order, increasing rivalry, polarization, and unilateral actions risk creating 'a more conflictual world' without shared rules and effective multilateral cooperation, the report warns
- A Munich Security Conference survey reveals that most citizens in Western industrialized nations express concern of the emerging multipolar order, fearing it will increase disorder and conflict
- Majorities in BRICS countries view the shift optimistically, seeing it as a path toward a fairer, more just, and peaceful world
BERLIN
The world is entering an era of heightened tensions and uncertainty as it shifts from US-led unipolarity toward multipolarity, according to a new report by the Munich Security Conference.
The Munich Security Report 2025, set for official release ahead of this week's conference, notes that while the future remains unclear — whether dominated by US-China rivalry or evolving into a broader multipolar system — the process of “multipolarization” continues to gain momentum.
“Today's international system shows elements of unipolarity, bipolarity, multipolarity, and nonpolarity. Yet an ongoing power shift toward a greater number of states vying for influence is clearly discernible,” the report states, highlighting the rising influence of BRICS nations and regional powers such as Türkiye and Qatar.
According to the authors, multipolarization is not only evident in the growing influence of emerging powers but also in widening ideological divides, as liberal values lose their dominance both within nations and across the global system.
“Political and economic liberalism, which shaped the unipolar post–Cold War period, is no longer the only game in town. It is increasingly contested from within, as demonstrated by the rise of nationalist populism in many liberal democracies,” the report states.
“But it is also challenged from without, as evidenced in a growing ideological bifurcation between democracies and autocracies, as well as in the emergence of a world in which multiple order models co-exist, compete, or clash,” it adds.
The report suggests that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could accelerate this shift, signaling the end of “Pax Americana.” It notes that Trump views the current international order as unfavorable and would likely prioritize US interests and China containment, potentially straining relationships with allies.
Different perceptions of multipolarity
As the world shifts from US-led unipolarity toward multipolarity, perceptions differ sharply between citizens of Western industrialized nations and those in emerging powers of the Global South, according to the report.
A Munich Security Conference survey found that most respondents in G7 nations view the shift with concern, fearing it could increase disorder and conflict, making it harder to reach global agreements.
When asked if a multipolar order would bring a more peaceful world, the survey revealed negative sentiment across G7 nations: France showed minus 7% net agreement (meaning 7% more respondents disagreed than agreed), Germany minus 9%, Italy minus 11%, and Japan showed the strongest skepticism at minus 20%,
By contrast, majorities in BRICS countries saw multipolarity as a path to a fairer, more just, and peaceful world. The survey found that most respondents in China, India, South Africa, and Brazil believed a multipolar system would better address the concerns of developing nations.
Asked whether “a multipolar world would better address the concerns of weaker/developing countries,” respondents strongly agreed: China (+50% more respondents agreeing than disagreeing), South Africa (+45% net agreement), India (+44% net agreement), and Brazil (+35% net agreement).
The report also notes that second Trump presidency could further accelerate multipolarization. It argues that Trump’s approach — prioritizing US interests over global cooperation — could strain alliances, particularly in Europe.
US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could further accelerate multipolarization, the report says. It argues that Trump’s approach — prioritizing US interests over global cooperation — was likely to further strain relations with traditional allies, potentially leading to significant consequences for Europe.
Growing risks of a conflictual world
The 151-page report underlined that while a more multipolar world offers significant promise for a more just and peaceful order, it could also reverse progress due to competition and polarization, which could make it harder to prevent conflicts and tackle global challenges.
It warns that recent trends — including rising unilateral actions by great powers and record-high defense spending — heighten concerns that multipolarity's negative effects may dominate, potentially triggering increased geopolitical tensions and conflicts between rival power centers.
“Before our eyes, we are seeing the negative scenario of a more multipolar world materialize — a more conflictual world without shared rules and effective multilateral cooperation,” the report states.
“Rather than generating more inclusive global benefits, it comes with fragmentation that is shrinking the proverbial global pie, potentially triggering 'lose-lose' dynamics where everyone will be worse off in the long run,” it warns.
Addressing these growing concerns, Munich Security Conference's chairman, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, warned that without shared rules, multipolarization could lead to increased global disorder, and underlined the importance of respecting international norms to prevent new tensions in an increasingly complex world.
“If we want to preserve common ground in a world shaped by more actors and increasing polarization, we all have to recommit to those rules laid down in the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that everyone has agreed to,” he said. “A multipolar world must not become a world in which every pole acts as it pleases nor where the rule of law is undermined both internationally and at home,” he added.
The Munich Security Conference, where the report's findings will be discussed, begins on Feb. 14, bringing together world leaders, top ministers, officials, and security experts from across the globe. During the three-day conference, US Vice President JD Vance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will deliver speeches. Additional speakers include UK's Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, and Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly. The organizers expect approximately 60 heads of state and government, 150 ministers, and leaders of major international organizations to participate.
