Ethiopia is facing its most serious security crisis in years as fighting has returned to the northern Tigray region, raising fears of a new civil war and a wider regional conflict.
The fighting that intensified on Sept. 23 is the most severe since the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which killed hundreds of thousands of people before a peace agreement was signed in South Africa.
The latest conflict has already spread beyond Tigray, while relations between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea have deteriorated sharply.
The International Crisis Group warned in a statement that northern Ethiopia was facing a “dangerous descent back into war,” urging African leaders and key outside powers, including the US, to push both sides to de-escalate, show restraint and return to negotiations.
“The situation in Tigray is dangerously close to returning to full-blown war," Murithi Mutiga, Africa director at the International Crisis Group, said in a statement. "A new war would impose unbearable costs on northern Ethiopia’s long-suffering civilians.”
The EU in a statement Monday called for immediate de-escalation on all fronts, urging those involved to refrain from actions or rhetoric that could heighten tensions.
Here is what is happening in the country.
The 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the large-scale war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), but left disputes over territory, security and political arrangements unresolved.
The latest major escalation began on Sept. 23, when Tigrayan forces seized the federally administered airports of Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, Axum and Shire, according to the African Union.
An offensive also opened fronts in and around neighboring Amhara and Afar.
The International Crisis Group said the attacks appeared to mark the first coordinated military operation by a newly formed opposition alliance against federal forces and their allies.
The TPLF-led regional administration said its forces were responding to federal air and artillery attacks. The African Union said the airport seizures were inconsistent with the Pretoria agreement and urged the parties to resume direct talks.
The battlefield has since shifted. Federal forces and allied fighters regained control of Mekelle over the weekend after Tigrayan forces withdrew. The TPLF said its regional administration would be “temporarily moved out of Mekelle and operate from somewhere else.”
The withdrawal did not end the fighting. Airstrikes and artillery fire were reported in northern Tigray on Oct. 5.
Federal troops and allied groups, including the government-backed Tigray Peace Forces, are fighting the TPLF and other armed opposition movements.
Government officials blamed the TPLF for the erupting conflict.
The TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. Its subsequent split with the federal government helped set the stage for the 2020-2022 war.
However, the TPLF is now part of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a seven-group coalition announced in September that has pledged to remove Abiy and establish a transitional administration.
Alongside the TPLF, the coalition includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement, according to its founding statement read on Tigrai TV.
The statement accused the government of presiding over conflict, displacement, poverty and the erosion of rights.
The alliance brings together groups with different political goals and territorial claims. Its formation does not mean they operate as a unified army, but some have already coordinated attacks.
According to the International Crisis Group, Tigrayan forces and Amhara Fano fighters jointly attacked federal troops in Amhara near southern Tigray, while an Afar opposition group fought alongside the TPLF on the Tigray-Afar border.
The cooperation marks a shift from the 2020-2022 war, when Amhara forces fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF. Tigrayan fighters are now also on opposing sides, with the Tigray Peace Forces supporting the federal government.
The federal government is led by Abiy, whose political base is largely associated with the Oromo community, and allied forces from other parts of the country.
The Pretoria agreement, signed on Nov. 2, 2022, formally ended the two-year Tigray war and provided for a permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament and a political process.
The African Union has described the Pretoria agreement as the "cornerstone" of peace, stability and reconciliation in Ethiopia and urged the parties to return to direct talks.
But key disputes remained, including questions over territory, the return of displaced people and the political and security arrangements in Tigray.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' office said in September that it was "particularly troubled" by reports of drone use and civilian casualties, urging all sides to "exercise maximum restraint" and resolve their differences through dialogue under the Pretoria framework.
The African Union has also called for "utmost restraint" and an immediate end to actions that could escalate tensions.
The crisis also has a regional dimension because Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting forces opposed to Abiy's government.
The three countries have denied the allegations.
Egypt and Sudan, both downstream from Ethiopia, are in a dispute with Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile and have sought a binding agreement on its filling and operation.
Cairo fears the project could affect its annual water allocation of 55.5 billion cubic meters (1.96 trillion cubic feet).
Eritrea was an important military ally of Ethiopia during the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the TPLF.
But the relationship has since deteriorated dramatically. One major source of tension is Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea.
Abiy reiterated the importance of sea access after being sworn in for another five-year term this week, saying "Ethiopia's modernization cannot be realized without sea access."
The diplomatic crisis escalated last week.
Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata.
Eritrea subsequently announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
The immediate concern is the impact on civilians.
The renewed fighting threatens civilians still recovering from the previous war, including those who remain displaced, the UN has warned.
Humanitarian operations have already been disrupted by road closures, communications outages and the seizure of aid vehicles.
The UN reported that a drone strike in northwestern Tigray hit a truck carrying food assistance for displaced people.
Internet and telephone services were reportedly disrupted in Mekelle and parts of Amhara, while roads were blocked in parts of Afar. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Axum and Shire after the TPLF seized the three airports.
“I am deeply alarmed by the recent escalation in hostilities between Ethiopian Government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and its allies, and the harmful impacts it is already having on civilians,” UN human rights chief Volker Turk said in late September.
He warned that communications outages could prevent civilians from finding safe routes out of affected areas and hamper aid workers’ efforts to reach those in need.
Turk also condemned what his office described as a campaign of forced mass recruitment by the TPLF, including of children and former fighters demobilized in late 2025.
People who resisted recruitment and their relatives had faced killings, torture, arbitrary detention, forced displacement and other reprisals, his office said.
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