- ‘No clear winners,’ Gulf security analyst Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco tells Anadolu
- US and Israel secured some tactical gains but face rising costs and strain
- Iran sustains pressure through asymmetric attacks despite heavy losses
ISTANBUL
Five weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, analysts say the conflict is drifting toward a costly stalemate, with neither side able to convert battlefield gains into a decisive outcome.
Both sides have secured tactical advantages while absorbing mounting military, economic and human costs, raising the risk of a prolonged conflict.
"Five weeks into the conflict, there are no clear winners, only an emerging pattern of asymmetry and endurance," Gulf security analyst Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco told Anadolu.
Mazzucco said the war is exposing limits, particularly for airpower, which has yet to deliver a clear victory.
"It has exposed weaknesses in Iran’s air defense architecture, which cannot withstand sustained pressure from a superior conventional force. Yet it has also underscored the resilience of Iran’s missile and drone ecosystem,” he said.
He added that while the US and Israel have achieved tactical success in degrading Iranian assets and targeting senior leadership, translating those gains into a strategic outcome remains elusive.
"As long as the Iranian regime retains political control and its forces can still threaten US military personnel and assets, as well as its regional partners, the conflict points more toward a protracted stalemate than a clear victory," said Mazzucco.
US: Tactical dominance, rising costs
Analysts say Washington has demonstrated the ability to sustain high-tempo, large-scale air operations, targeting Iranian naval assets, strike platforms and elements of its radar network.
According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US has struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran, including dozens of naval vessels, since Feb. 28.
Mazzucco said that while Washington has degraded significant portions of Iran’s military infrastructure, the gains have come with growing operational and financial strain.
The US military campaign has cost an estimated $26.74 billion as of March 28, 2026, according to data from CENTCOM and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The spending includes roughly $10 billion in air defense interceptors alongside thousands of strike operations across the region.
The US has also sustained material losses, including three F-15 fighter jets lost to friendly fire in Kuwait, the destruction of forward-deployed radar systems, the loss of an E-3 Sentry aircraft and multiple MQ-9 Reaper drones.
CENTCOM says a total of 13 US service members have been killed and about 303 others have been injured since the operation began.
However, a report by The Intercept suggests higher figures, reporting at least 15 deaths. The report also said US bases in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the UAE have been targeted.
Analysts say the campaign is also placing pressure on high-end munitions stockpiles and broader military readiness.
"The daily burn rate is broadly assessed at around $1 billion per day, placing total operational costs after five weeks well into the tens of billions,” Mazzucco said, adding that precise estimates are impossible without knowledge of the type and volume of munitions expended.
The strain, he added, extends beyond direct costs.
"These include maintenance and logistical strain on naval assets, such as the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier temporarily repositioned to Souda Bay, Crete, for repairs after Red Sea operations, as well as the additional deployment of the USS George H.W. Bush to sustain operational tempo,” Mazzucco said.
“Such measures underscore the cumulative strain on readiness and force rotation."
Iran: Heavy losses, sustained pressure
Analysts say Iran has suffered significant damage to its military infrastructure, including missile launch capabilities, air defense systems and naval assets in US and Israeli strikes.
Despite this, Tehran continues to launch strikes, although at a reduced tempo, targeting high-value sites across the region, including infrastructure in Gulf states and ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since Feb. 28, Iran has launched approximately 6,770 missile and drone attacks.
"Iran’s strategy has increasingly relied on asymmetric warfare, including threats to critical infrastructure and shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to impose long-term economic and security costs without matching US military strength,” said Mazzucco.
The US has destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, according to Reuters.
The civilian toll inside Iran has also been severe.
More than 1,340 people have been killed in US and Israeli strikes, according to Iranian authorities, including at least 150 schoolgirls in an airstrike on an elementary school in Minab.
According to Human Rights Activists in Iran, 1,606 civilians, 1,213 military personnel and 711 unclassified individuals had been killed as of April 2, including at least 244 children.
Iran has also lost several key figures in strikes.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, top security adviser Ali Shamkhani, senior military commanders Mohammad Pakpour and Abdolrahim Mousavi, intelligence officer Saleh Asadi and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh were killed in strikes on Feb. 28.
Prominent political figure Ali Larijani was killed in US-Israeli strikes on March 17, while Iran confirmed on Monday that Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri was also killed.
More than 113,000 civilian sites, including homes, schools and commercial facilities, have been damaged, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society.
Strikes have also damaged critical infrastructure, including a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, oil facilities and parts of the South Pars gas field.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said last week that Iran had informed it of three strikes in the vicinity of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, though no damage to the reactor has been reported.
Israel: Continued exposure
Israel remains under sustained missile and drone attacks from Iran, forcing heavy reliance on air defense systems such as Arrow and David’s Sling.
Iran has launched 1,365 attacks on Israel, including 600 missiles and 765 drones, according to the Institute for National Security Studies.
Analysts say these defensive operations are costly and placing strain on military resources.
On Monday, Israel’s Health Ministry reported a total of 6,008 casualties since the war began.
Israel's national emergency service Magen David Adom said Monday it had attended to 504 people injured by missile fire, including 19 fatalities and 20 in serious condition.
Iranian strikes have also hit infrastructure, including damage to the Haifa refinery’s electricity systems and localized disruptions to the power grid.
According to the Israeli military, 10 soldiers have been killed in southern Lebanon and 309 wounded in the Iran war since Feb. 28.
