Ali Murat Alhas
January 10, 2020•Update: January 10, 2020
ANKARA
Last week’s momentous killing of a top Iranian general was in the spotlight in Turkey’s capital Ankara this Friday, where a panel discussed the shocking development and its repercussions for the Mideast and global politics.
Qasem Soleimani was killed on Jan. 3 when U.S. drones struck his vehicle in Baghdad, triggering Tehran to retaliate with missile attacks on Iraqi bases housing U.S. soldiers. on Jan. 8.
Sabir Askeroglu, representing the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM) at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM) panel, said the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq paved the way for rising Iranian influence in Iraq and the Middle East.
Askeroglu said regional countries with Shia communities are disturbed by Iran’s expansionist policy and growing instability in the Middle East and are looking for foreign allies such as the U.S.
He went on to say that Soleimani shaped Iran’s regional policies with the approval of the country’s supreme leader, implementing and strategizing Iranian moves in the region as he established a militia network in the Middle East.
Stressing that the general’s killing damaged Iran’s political and military stance, he added that Tehran retreated despite openly criticizing the U.S. in the first days of the incident.
‘Controlled dynamic’
Bilgay Duman, the coordinator of ORSAM's Iraqi studies department, said the rivalry between Tehran and Washington used to be conducted on the basis of a “controlled conflict dynamic,” meaning tensions would surge occasionally but would never cross a line, but Soleimani’s killing changed that.
Saying that Iraq’s forming a government will be complicated by this tension, Duman stressed that the moves of both Iran and the U.S. violate Iraqi sovereignty.
He warned that the sectarian conflict in Iraq might come to the surface yet again and bring about a power vacuum that might be filled by ISIS/Daesh attacks.
Oytun Orhan, the coordinator of ORSAM’s Levant studies, said that U.S. and Iran policies were somehow “balanced” until the killing of Soleimani as neither side crossed any red lines.
Orhan said Iran made a mistake as it was so “confident” with its growing influence across the Middle East that Soleimani was freely moving in Iraqi territories where U.S. officials could easily get intelligence to launch an attack.
He said the killing of a U.S. contractor at a base in Iraq and the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad were red lines in the eyes of Washington and it decided to eliminate Soleimani.
He went on to say that the U.S. gave a clear message with the killing of the Iranian general and re-established itself as a deterrent force in the region, which might eventually cause Iran to refrain from using its proxies in the region to some extent.
He said the aftermath of Soleimani’s killing brought both opportunities and risks for Turkey, and so Ankara should choose its moves carefully.
