- In joint declaration, leaders of Scottish National Party, Sinn Fein, and Plaid Cymru call on UK government to prepare for, plan, and facilitate constitutional change
- In response, Prime Minister Andy Burnham says he 'believes strongly in the union'
Monday's meeting in Wales’ capital Cardiff between the first ministers of three devolved UK nations marks the latest step in a long-running debate over the future of the union, with a joint declaration signed by nationalist party leaders stressing the right to determine their own future and also calling on the UK government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change.”
Landmark self-determination declaration
The joint declaration signed in Cardiff by Rhun ap Iorwerth, first minister of Wales and leader of Plaid Cymru; John Swinney, first minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP); and Michelle O'Neill, first minister of Northern Ireland and vice-president of Sinn Fein, said the political landscape "is changing."
The Celtic Alliance leaders said they believe the "future of our nations belongs in the European Union," adding that, for the first time ever, there are first ministers in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland "who are all committed to independence from the UK."
The move came after US President Donald Trump said Sunday that integrating Ireland and Northern Ireland represents "one of the naturals of all time," suggesting historical partitions should be resolved.
On Saturday, visiting Ireland, he also said he would "love" to see a united Ireland.
The new declaration, however, is only the latest step in a long-running debate over the future of the union since 1997.
Good Friday Agreement and beginning of devolution era
The Good Friday Agreement, also known as the Belfast Agreement, was a landmark peace deal signed in 1998 to end decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles.
It states that Northern Ireland's constitutional status can only change through a majority vote, known as the "principle of consent," an important point which has loudly been raised by Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein.
Scotland and Wales’ devolution processes began with public referendums in 1997 which led to the passing of the Scotland Act 1998 and the Government of Wales Act 1998, and the official opening of both the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales (Senedd) in 1999.
Northern Ireland’s devolved institutions also began operating under the Good Friday Agreement framework the same year.
SNP victory and Scottish independence referendum
In 2007, the Scottish National Party (SNP) led by Alex Salmond managed to enter government with 45% of the vote, forming a minority government.
But in the 2011 elections, the SNP was able to win a landslide of 69 seats to form a majority government in Holyrood, the first majority government since the opening of the Scottish Parliament.
In 2013, the pro-independence SNP reached a deal with the UK on the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 setting out an independence proposal requiring a simple majority to pass.
The referendum asking voters "Should Scotland be an independent country?" was held in Scotland on Sept. 18, 2014.
The “no” side won with just over 2 million (55.3%) votes against independence and some 1.62 million (44.7%) votes in favor with 84.6% turnout, the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the UK since the January 1910 general election.
Brexit, UK Supreme Court ruling
The idea of holding another independence referendum flared up in Scotland once again with the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum. Although an overall majority in the UK voted in favor of leaving the EU, most people in Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the bloc.
In 2019, when Boris Johnson became British prime minister, he stressed that he would reject any request to hold a second vote on Scotland's future in the UK.
In 2021, the SNP, led by Nicola Sturgeon, won another election in Scotland, paving the way for a possible second independence referendum returning to the center of Scottish politics.
However in 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the Scottish Parliament lacks the legislative competence to hold a second independence referendum without consent from the UK government
Changes in Wales, Northern Ireland leadership
After capturing the largest number of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time in 2022, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein Party won the 2024 elections and its leader Michelle O'Neill was appointed Northern Ireland's first-ever nationalist first minister.
In Wales this May, Plaid Cymru made history in the Welsh Senedd elections, ending 100 years of Labour control and making Rhun ap Iorwerth the first minister of Wales.
In the 2021 Senedd election, Plaid Cymru had committed to holding a referendum on Welsh independence by 2026 if the party won a majority in the Senedd.
Thus this May saw, for the first time in history, the three devolved governments of the UK—Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—all led by pro-independence first ministers who have pledged to leave the UK.
In response to Monday’s declaration, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said that he “believes strongly in the union.”
