Trump-Netanyahu rift: Temporary spat or turning point for US-Israel relations?

• Middle East expert Ian Lustick says both leaders ‘seething’ but constrained by domestic political considerations
• 'If Netanyahu continues to try to spoil the agreement ... Trump has signaled that he will try to make Netanyahu's political life as difficult as possible,' says Evan Cooper of the Stimson Center

Growing tensions between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Iran ceasefire and Israel's military operations in Lebanon are exposing one of the most serious strains in US-Israel relations in years.

The dispute has fueled questions about whether Trump is willing to place greater limits on Israeli actions than previous US presidents and whether the latest disagreements could reshape a relationship long considered one of Washington's closest strategic partnerships.

"There has been a genuine breakdown in the relationship between the Trump administration and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," Evan Cooper, research analyst at the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at Stimson Center, told Anadolu.

Cooper said that while the tensions may not be permanent, they are unlike any disagreement between the two governments in recent history.

"The Trump administration has signaled that it wants an end to the war with Iran and wants to reduce Netanyahu's ability to spoil a ceasefire. If the ceasefire holds, the lesson in the United States may be that standing up to Netanyahu is a viable, and necessary, tactic. This could fundamentally change the relationship between the two countries," he said.

Ian Lustick, political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, agreed that relations between the two leaders have deteriorated sharply.

"Each is seething. But each has an interest in pretending it is not as serious a conflict as each feels it to be," he said.

Efforts to end hostilities with Iran, combined with Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, have fueled the latest public disagreements between Washington and Tel Aviv.

During a heated phone call earlier this month, Trump called Netanyahu "crazy," and was disgruntled that Israel was sabotaging the peace deal with Iran.

Vice President JD Vance also criticized Israeli officials last week, saying Trump was the only head of state in the world who remained consistently sympathetic to Israel.

From the Israeli side, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Israel would respond immediately and forcefully to any Iranian attack, adding that "no one can tell us what to do."

History of disagreements

Although the United States and Israel are often described as inseparable allies, the relationship has experienced significant tensions before.

In 1956, President Dwight D. Eisenhower strongly opposed Israel's joint military operation with Britain and France against Egypt.

Fearing a surge in Soviet influence, Washington exerted intense diplomatic and economic pressure, forcing Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion to withdraw from Egyptian territory in one of the few instances where a US president compelled Israel to reverse a major military operation.

In 1981, US President Ronald Reagan temporarily froze the delivery of advanced F-16 fighter jets to Israel following its surprise bombing of Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor.

In the early 1990s, President George H.W. Bush threatened to withhold $10 billion in loan guarantees in an effort to pressure Israel over settlement expansion in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Relations again became strained during the Obama administration over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Netanyahu openly opposing the agreement and bypassing the White House to address Congress in 2015.

Even so, the relationship has generally been strong.

The United States was the first country to recognize Israel following its establishment in 1948 and has since provided more than $300 billion in economic and military assistance, making Israel the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Military cooperation remains a cornerstone of the relationship, with Washington committed to providing $3.8 billion annually in security assistance through 2028.

Will the alliance survive?

Yet even as tensions grow between Trump and Netanyahu, Congress appears poised to deepen military integration between the two countries.

A provision of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) currently under consideration in Congress, would significantly expand technology and information sharing between the US and Israeli militaries.

"It would create an unprecedented system for technology and information sharing between the United States military and Israeli Defense Forces,” Cooper said.

"The provision is likely to pass, and if it does, that will demonstrate the fortitude of the relationship between the two countries. However, if President Trump pushes Republicans to pull support … it would be a sign that the alliance is being fundamentally reconsidered."

Lustick argued that the countries’ divergent positions on Lebanon are “accelerating the transformation of that relationship into a much more transactional set of ties."

"I would call it a special relationship that has become increasingly toxic,” he said.

He said a major shift in American politics is that the nature of the US-Israel relationship is increasingly being debated rather than accepted as unquestioned consensus.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu said Israel must reduce its dependence on foreign support and build a more independent arms industry amid the growing disagreements with Washington.

Netanyahu has publicly backed efforts to eventually phase out the $3.8 billion in annual US military assistance provided under the current memorandum of understanding and replace it with expanded joint investment in defense and technology projects.

"The time has now arrived for us to move from aid recipient to partner," Netanyahu reportedly wrote in a letter backing the bill.

Lustick said it was unrealistic for Israel to maintain its current strategic position without US support.

On the other hand, he noted that congressional efforts to deepen military integration between the two countries demonstrate the enduring strength of the relationship regardless of political disputes.

“The NDAA in the US shows the influence of his effort to embed and institutionalize American military and security integration with Israel so as not to have to defend the wisdom or appropriateness of Israeli policies, which annual discussions of foreign aid can make necessary."

Is Trump signaling change?

Recent Israeli media reports suggested that members of the Trump administration have held informal contacts with opposition figures, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, amid growing frustration with Netanyahu.

Trump has also shared articles highlighting his influence over Netanyahu's political fortunes, fueling speculation about Washington's willingness to increase pressure on the Israeli leader to back his rivals.

Lustick said such moves are intended to remind Netanyahu that maintaining a productive relationship with Trump remains politically essential.

"Netanyahu needs the image that he has a successful partnership with Trump in order to win the upcoming Israeli election in the fall," he said.

The debate also reflects divisions within Trump's political base.

A prominent faction of the Republican America First movement, including figures such as Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, opposes continued US military and financial support for Israel, challenging the traditional pro-Israel consensus within the Republican Party.

"Trump is unwilling to choose sides too decisively in the intra-MAGA battle over Israel, and if he broke too publicly and too viciously with Israel, it would cause a crisis in MAGA and certainly affect Trump's relations with key mega-donors linked to the Israel lobby," Lustick said.

Cooper, however, argued that Trump's recent actions are primarily aimed at limiting Netanyahu's ability to undermine a ceasefire with Iran rather than removing him from power.

"Trump does not want Netanyahu to interfere in finding an end to the hugely unpopular war with Iran and if Netanyahu backs down, Trump is likely to be willing to continue to support Bibi,” he said.

“But if Netanyahu continues to try to spoil the agreement, especially through escalation against Lebanon, Trump has signaled that he will try to make Netanyahu's political life as difficult as possible.”